This site is created by Bo Waggoner for everyone to use. It is not affiliated with the NCAA.

The projections are only as good as the season results we have. Huge thanks to The Stride Report (2019) and Jonathan Gault of LetsRun.com (many years) for compiling and checking results, as well as posts and emails from people with corrections!

Source code

Download the source code and compiled meet results here (see example.py): https://xcquals.com/xcquals.zip


If you see something that looks fishy or wrong, please email bwag - at - colorado - dot - edu with a subject line like "XC Quals - question". You can see the season results used at 2018/w/meets/ (for women) and 2018/m/meets/ (for men). If you see a mistake, please email.

Rules - Overview

There are 9 regions. Each has a regional meet. Based on these and season results, 31 teams are selected. Here is the basic idea (more details below):

First: a point can only be awarded for beating an opponent's A team. An A team is defined as any time at least 4 of the top 7 from regionals ran in a race. (So we only know what the A teams are when the regional lineups are set.) The program on this site does not take A teams into account, except by trying not to include results where an obvious B team was run.

Second, wins are only counted for points if they happen after a certain date (usually about the second weekend in September, in 2018 it is September 7 onward).

Third, if there is a tie for multiple teams with the most points at any time, then some tiebreakers are applied. If Team X has a losing head-to-head record vs Team Y, then we must not select X. If the head-to-head record is tied but team X lost the most recent contest, we must not select X. If head-to-head is not enough to narrow down to a single selection, we go to common (D1) opponents. If Team X has a lower winning percentage against common opponents than Team Y, we must not select X. After that, the team that finished higher at their regional meet wins the tie breaker. After that, the team whose point total was closest to the 2nd-place team in their region. (This program does not use the point totals, so it does not use this tiebreaker.) After that, it is at the committee's discretion.

Fourth, the push process. A team with the most points can "push" in one team ahead of it. So the full selection process is:

Official 2022 Qualifying Procedures (pdf mirror) as found on this page as "Pre-Championships Manual".

Official 2021 Qualifying Procedures (pdf mirror) as found on this page as "Pre-Championships Manual".

Official 2019 Qualifying Procedures (pdf mirror) as found on this page as "Pre-Championships Manual".

Official 2018 Qualifying Procedures (pdf) as found on this page as "Pre-Championships Manual".